New Delhi: A new study by researchers from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has predicted that India may see 2.87 lakh coronavirus cases per day by the end of 2021, in case there is no vaccine or effective drug for the virus. According to a report by IANS, the study done by researchers Hazhir Rahmandad, TY Lim and John Sterman of MIT’s Sloan School of Management, also said that there might be 249 million (24.9 crore) cases and 1.8 million (18 lakh) deaths globally by spring 2021. The findings were based on a mathematical model used to predict the trends of infectious diseases.
The researchers used a multi-country modified SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model which is also used by epidemiologists, to calculate the transmission of Covid-19 in 84 countries (4.75 billion people). The model tracked community transmission by estimating the date of the introduction of patient zero for each country. It tracks the population through susceptible, pre-symptomatic, infected pre-testing, infected post-testing, and recovered state in each country.
Mumbai: Health workers rest during a COVID-19 check-up, at Malad in Mumbai, Tuesday, July 7, 2020. (PTI Photo)
“Our model captures transmission dynamics for the disease, as well as how, at the country level, transmission rates vary in response to risk perception and weather, testing rates condition infection and death data, and fatality rates depend on demographics and hospitalisation,” the researchers said in the report.
According to the daily infection rates projected by the model, at the end of 2021 India will be the worst affected country in the world followed by the US. Based on the model, the list of top 10 countries will be India, the US, South Africa, Iran, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey, France, and Germany.
“While actual cases are far greater than official reports suggest, the majority of people remain susceptible. Waiting for herd immunity is not a viable path out of the current pandemic,” said Rahmandad in the report.